Few days ago I wrote an article calling upon readers to be wary of both proclamations of the rebels and those of the regime. It is still relevant. As in other international crises, we do not know exactly how is the situation on the ground. How many deaths? Which cities are fallen?
A reader, who works in North Africa, sent me an email, from which it ensues that, contrary to news agencies reported, between Thursday and Friday would happen nothing important.
Significant witness, which reinforces my caution. Are we sure that Gaddafi is losing? I am not. Just now the Colonel had a long speech and as always delirious. With a significant news, however: he threats to replace the western oil companies with chinese ones. And do not forget his huge investments in the West: the Colonel's financial empire is very extended, with branches in major European airlines. It is not a secret that Gaddafi is vindictive...
Therefore a negative scenarios are emerging for us in the west and in particular for Italy, at least soon.
1) The revolt continues, Gaddafi resists, a civil war with tens of thousands of deaths and a strong instability in the region before the advent of a new more stable regime. Result: tragedy and a human wave of refugees.
2) Libya is divided in two parts, the West imposes a no-fly zone, Qaddafi remains in power but isolated from the world, re-creating the situation that was in Iraq between 1991and 2003; in short Gaddafi as Saddam. Result: at sea the energy supply to Italy.
3) Qaddafi remains in power and settles scores with countries that have betrayed him using the financial and energy weapons. Result: you can imagine it...
There are a fourth and a fifth scenario: the escape, perhaps agreed, of the Colonel to Venezuela or Cuba, therefore the exile. The perfect result for everyone, but even the most unlikely. If he has not left yet, Gaddafi will fight to the last. The last scenario is represented by a "humanitarian" military intervention, Kosovo-style, evoked in these hours, among others, by D' Alema. But the Pentagon says it can not (or will) engage in a third front in any case this kinf of operations usually requires several weeks of preparation and therefore it is ,soon, unlikely.
We have to get ready, this crisis will last long and it is very difficult to be managed. To confirm that it is much easier to overthrow authoritarian regimes, which, after all, were those of Ben Ali and Mubarak, which left spaces for growth and freedom to the civil society.
When you are dealing with dictatorial regimes like those of Saddam and Gaddafi, the game is more complicated. The square is not enough and the intelligence, often, is insufficient. With one difference: Iraq was far away, Libya is very close and linked with the West and particularly with Italy.
Source: Il Blog di Marcello Foa